2023-03-06 21:25:09
COSTCO говорит, что видят снижение инфляции (хоть и не сильное) с 8% до 7-6%, с последующим падение до 6-5% в 2023Q2,
а также явное улучшение цепочек поставок из китая с 70+ дней, до 30 дней
Это положительный знак от реального бизнеса на текущий квартал
Посмотрим что скажет Жора Пауэл на текущей неделе
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584129-costco-wholesale-corporation-cost-q2-2023-earnings-call-transcript
Now a few comments regarding inflation. It continues to seem to improve somewhat. Recall, back in the fourth fiscal quarter, which ended last August, our estimated year-over-year price inflation was 8% for that prior fiscal year. During Q1, the estimate on a year-over-year basis came down to 6% to 7%. In Q2, we estimate that the equivalent year-over-year inflation number has come down to 5% to 6% range and even a little lower than that towards the end of the quarter, according to the buyers. We continue to see some improvements in many items. Commodity prices are starting to fall not back to pre-COVID levels and some examples but continue to provide some relief with things like chicken, bacon, butter, steel, resin, nuts.
Switching over to our inventory levels. Again, both in Q3 and Q4 fiscal year-ends in fiscal '22, on a year-over-year basis, our inventories were up 26% year-over-year. And then in our first quarter of this year, they were up 10%, so good improvement there. As of this quarter end, our inventory year-over-year as of the end of Q2 was down 2% year-over-year. Regarding the 2% drop, we were a bit over-inventoried last year as a result of supply chain challenges, causing inventory to be backed up at the ports. And talking to the buyers a year ago, their estimate of just timing of getting things across the ocean was 70-plus days. Today, it's back down to 30-ish days. And so supply chain improvement across the board and rates, of course, coming down.
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