Valerii Pekar, Mychailo Wynnyckyj, Andrii Dligach see the foll | Strategist (Dr. Andrii Dligach)

Valerii Pekar, Mychailo Wynnyckyj, Andrii Dligach see the following possible scenarios for the coming autumn months.

Scenario 1: Slow down

As a result of western attentions turning to events in other theatres and/or a successful Russian information operation undermining the West’s trust in Ukraine, deliveries of military equipment are slowed down. Russia gets its much-desired operational pause to build up its forces and an opportunity to increase military, economic and political pressure. The Ukrainian economy does not receive enough resources for support and subsequently faces a recession and hyperinflation.

Scenario 2: Squeeze

Successful Ukrainian pressure on Russian defence lines in the south, well-aimed strikes on logistics targets and command centres, the disruption of supply lines and weak Russian management all lead to military failure and roll back.

Scenario 3: Counterattack

Russia gathers its forces and disrupts the Ukrainian offensive in the south. Ukrainian troops withdraw and there is a pause.

Scenario 4: Rebellion

As a result of numerous problems and defeats, the management system in Russia begins to face serious issues. The Russian leadership must switch attention to internal problems. Russian troops are subsequently withdrawn to positions that are easier to defend.